A Checkers Player Meets a Three-Dimensional-Chess Master

The game of geopolitics has long been marked by grandstanding and posturing between Washington and Beijing. However, Donald Trump’s recent visit to China revealed a stark reality: the United States is no longer the dominant world power it once was.

Ancient Chinese dynasties offer a striking parallel to modern-day geopolitics. Just as kings and chieftains would send emissaries to pay homage to the imperial court, Trump’s trip to Beijing was a desperate attempt to curry favor with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. The visit, intended to establish stability after years of trade wars and acrimony, instead highlighted America’s decline in global influence.

Trump’s praise for Xi as a “great leader” fell on deaf ears, and Xi’s stern warning about Taiwan served as a reminder that China will not be swayed by empty flattery or promises of economic concessions. The US president’s hesitation to commit to defending Taiwan emboldened Beijing’s stance.

The unresolved conflict in Iran also cast a long shadow over the summit. Trump’s team had hoped to pressure Xi into curbing China’s support for Tehran, but the Chinese leader proved unyielding. By sanctioning refiners and companies involved in arms deals with Iran, Washington is essentially asking Beijing to choose between its economic interests and its alliance with Tehran.

The White House’s mixed signals on Iran have further muddled the waters. Trump claimed that Xi had promised not to arm Iran, but this contradicts US intelligence findings. The fact that the president seems willing to lift sanctions on Chinese oil companies involved raises questions about his commitment to holding China accountable for its actions.

Tuvia Gering observed that China’s geopolitical vision imposes a “definitive ceiling” on Beijing’s willingness to help Trump achieve his objectives in Iran. Xi’s goal, it seems, is to weaken US power in the region, and helping America secure a decisive victory would be strategically self-defeating.

On trade, Trump managed to extract some concessions from Xi, including promises to purchase Boeing aircraft and General Electric jet engines. However, these commitments are far from the deal that Trump had been touting, and it remains to be seen whether they will materialize.

China’s increasing influence has left America on the back foot, with few options but to accept Beijing’s terms. The US has become dependent on Chinese rare earths and supply-chain components, making it vulnerable to Xi’s economic leverage. Wang Huiyao suggested that a new pragmatism may prevail between the US and China, which could potentially lead to cooperation if Washington is willing to abandon its efforts to push China toward Western values.

However, this would require a fundamental shift in America’s approach to the relationship – one that acknowledges Beijing’s power and influence. Trump’s own words suggest that he has indeed come to accept this reality: “Having a good relationship is a good thing, not a bad thing.” But will this newfound pragmatism be enough to stem the tide of America’s decline? Only time will tell.

The consequences of Trump’s visit to Beijing will linger for years to come. As China’s emperor continues to assert its dominance, America must confront the uncomfortable truth: it is no longer the world’s greatest power.