Inside India Newsletter: Trump-Xi Meeting Tests India’s Positioning as China Counterweight

As the United States and China prepare for their high-stakes summit, India is bracing for impact. The implications of this meeting are far-reaching, not just for the region but also for New Delhi’s own strategic positioning.

For decades, Washington has courted India as a key partner in its efforts to contain Beijing’s growing economic and military might. This alliance was cemented by successive U.S. administrations, each recognizing India’s potential to serve as a counterweight to China’s one-party government. However, under the current Trump administration, this narrative has begun to fray.

The shift in U.S. foreign policy is evident in Washington’s increasingly transactional approach to its relationships with key partners like India. As trade tensions between the United States and China escalated during Trump’s first term, India benefited from the “China+1” policy, as American firms sought to diversify their supply chains away from Beijing. However, this trend has reversed in recent months, with Washington imposing penalty tariffs on Indian imports while reducing duties on Chinese goods.

Experts point out that the Trump-Xi meeting will be a test of New Delhi’s strategic value in the eyes of Washington. Ronak D. Desai, visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, argues that India must “make its strategic value harder to overlook” by delivering tangible outcomes in key sectors like defense, maritime security, and critical minerals.

The narrative of India as a counterbalance to China has weakened under the Trump administration, according to Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House. This shift in U.S. policy reflects a broader realignment of global power dynamics, with implications not just for economics but also for geopolitics.

As the world watches the outcome of the U.S.-China summit, India will be anxiously waiting for signs that its strategic value remains intact. However, with Washington’s priorities increasingly focused on Beijing, New Delhi must adapt and demonstrate its relevance in the Indo-Pacific.

The recent deterioration in U.S.-India ties is a symptom of a broader erosion of trust between the two nations. This trend is evident in the levying of penalty tariffs by Washington on Indian imports while reducing duties on Chinese goods. Such actions undermine India’s confidence in its relationship with the United States and raise questions about New Delhi’s strategic value.

The “China+1” policy, which once benefited India, has given way to a more transactional approach by Washington. Aryan D’Rozario, associate fellow at CSIS, notes that this shift reflects a realization that China is still an essential partner for American companies and consumers. The implications of this trend are significant, as it suggests that the United States may be willing to compromise on its principles in pursuit of short-term economic gains.

New Delhi must consider its strategic options carefully as it navigates these complex dynamics. Focusing on deepening ties with other key players in the region, such as Japan and Australia, within the framework of the QUAD partnership could enable India to strengthen its position as a counterbalance to Chinese influence while ensuring that Washington recognizes its value as a partner.

Alternatively, New Delhi can emphasize its economic potential and strategic location as a gateway between East Asia and the Middle East. By doing so, India can demonstrate its relevance in the Indo-Pacific and secure a more stable and predictable relationship with the United States.

The outcome of the U.S.-China summit will have far-reaching implications for New Delhi’s strategic positioning. As the world watches this high-stakes meeting, India must be prepared to adapt and demonstrate its relevance in the Indo-Pacific. The stakes are raised, and India’s future as a key player in the region hangs precariously in the balance. The outcome of this meeting will determine whether New Delhi’s strategic value is recognized by Washington or marginalized by a revived “G2” concept that prioritizes Beijing over middle powers like India.