The Trump Spectacle: A High-Stakes Gamble in Red State Strategy

The Republican midterm convention in Dallas was a jarring reminder of the party’s all-in bet on Donald Trump’s enduring popularity among its base. Oversized photographs of Trump plastered on the walls made it clear this wasn’t just a party event – it was a love letter to the former president.

Trump took center stage, urging his supporters to “pretend I’m on the ticket” as if he were still running for office. This may seem like an odd strategy, given Trump’s abysmal approval ratings (33% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll). However, Republicans are banking on a simple equation: get their base to show up and vote, and they’ll win.

In Illinois, for example, Trump received 700,000 more votes than the Republican candidate for governor did in 2022. “A lot of people that came out for President Trump don’t come out unless his name is physically on the ballot,” says Aaron Del Mar, a Republican Party operative from Illinois.

This strategy has been dubbed “driving out low propensity voters” – targeting those who only show up to vote in presidential elections but not midterms. Republicans hope to flip states like Illinois and others where they currently lag behind Democrats by doing so.

However, this gamble is fraught with risks. If Republicans lose control of one or both chambers, Trump will be stripped of his legislative power – and may even face impeachment proceedings once again. The stakes are high for the former president, who has seen his popularity ebb and flow over the years.

Both parties are essentially appealing to their own bases rather than trying to win over independents or swing voters. This is a reflection of America’s deepening partisan divide – and it’s not likely to change anytime soon. “Trump’s popularity is the same as it’s always been – high among his supporters, low among his opponents,” says Allyn Meyers, chairman of the Rhode Island Republican Party.

As the party continued to sing Trump’s praises, a gathering took place on the second level that was more telling of the real party dynamics at play. Conservative pundits and social media influencers mingled with politicians and their staff in the pro-Trump right-wing media outlets’ suite, fueled by chips, dips, and 7-Eleven coffee.

Here, money played a significant role – pitted against ideology. Republicans have amassed a staggering war chest of over $1 billion, largely thanks to Trump’s own fundraising efforts through MAGA Inc. By contrast, the Democrats’ cash reserves are significantly lower – just over $241 million.

The real story lies in the money game that underpins American politics. John Solomon, a conservative media entrepreneur and former government employee, pointed out four factors that could potentially alter the usual midterm outcome: the Republican convention itself, gerrymandering, and of course, money. Gerrymandering is particularly significant, as Republicans are using their cash advantage to redraw electoral maps to their advantage in key states.

This is not a level playing field – the Republicans have a significant cash advantage, which they’re willing to use to win at any cost. The real question is: what does this mean for American democracy in the long run?